Wales v Belgium / Germany v Italy: 2/1 Double

20:00, 02 jul 2016
20:00, 02 jul 2016
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Wales v Belgium

Wales v Belgium is perhaps the most interesting of the four upcoming matches at this tournament. Both sides have impressed at certain points during these finals, which is why both could be fancied for one reason or another. The Belgians are down as heavy favourites, although I think this is largely down to the contrasting manner in which these two came through the last 16. Wales found themselves in a scrap and edged out a dogged Northern Irish side by just a single goal – an own goal. Whereas Belgium stuck four past Hungary and cruised into the quarter-finals.

Even though they did indeed brush the Hungarians aside in the last 16, should Belgium be such overwhelming favourites? Does their exploits at this tournament in general warrant a price of 8/11? In my eyes, definitely not. Yes they were impressive last time out and yes they have a number of hugely talented, mercurial players. But lets not forget that Wales too are a good side, a side who also boast a number of good players, as well as a world class one.

If, like me, you’re of the opinion that the Belgians are too short and thus, at odds of 5/1, Wales are far too big, then backing Wales to win or at least Wales draw no bet (5/2) wouldn’t be a bad bet. However, there is another angle that’s worth taking.

The bet in question is Wales to score over 0.5 goals – essentially Wales to score a single goal in normal time. When we consider that the Welsh are yet to complete 90 minutes at these finals without scoring at least one goal – twice they’ve exceeded this – then this starts to look like a very attractive proposition. Some might say that Belgium have only conceded two goals so far (both in the opening match) and are therefore pretty solid at the back, but if we take a second to break down the bare facts then we can see that they don’t necessarily tell the full story. Having conceded twice against Italy in their opening match, they simply haven’t been tested defensively in their three games since. Ireland, Sweden and Hungary were all fairly toothless against the Belgians and keeping a clean sheet in these matches isn’t really anything to shout about.

Germany v Italy

Football fans will be treated to a repeat of the 1982 World Cup Final on Saturday night as the Germans and Italians go head to head for a place in the last four. Of the matches to be played in the quarter-finals this is the big one, a real heavyweight clash, and, for many, the main attraction of the round.

As well as being the biggest game, in terms of international prestige, it’s also arguably the hardest to call. We’re talking about two of the stand-out teams at these finals and predicting a winner from this pair looks a tough task. So far the Germans have been, well, they’ve been German. They’ve gone about their business with minimal fuss, dictated all of the games they’ve played, got the job done and are yet to concede a goal. It’s also been a familiar story for the Italians. They’ve done what they always do, defended well, made themselves hard to break down and have hit teams on the counter. Two contrasting styles, but both equally effective, until now at least.

With finding a bet in mind, going for a winner here doesn’t make much appeal. Like the Wales v Belgium game, although not quite to that degree, I do think one side are over priced. At 3/1 Italy wouldn’t be the worst bet, but, mirroring the selection above, Italy to score over 0.5 goals looks a fine addition to this double.

The Italians have found the net on five occasions in this tournament. The only time they failed to score was in the final group game against Ireland when they had already qualified and took the decision to rest almost an entire starting line-up. Moreover, in the upcoming match, it’s fair to assume that the Germans will look to play the game on the front foot and dictate possession as they so often do. In doing this it’s also only logical to assume that at times during the game the Italians will have sufficient counter-attacking opportunities, something we know they relish.

Enhanced odds! To get ‘Bale To Score & Wales To Win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1’ @ 10/1 (was 8/1) click here.

Check out our exclusive quarter-final infographics here.

Accumulator: Won
EURO 2016
20:00/1 jul
Wales v Belgium
EURO 2016
20:00/2 jul
Germany v Italy
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